Photo Credit: Wikipedia
It’s early 2008 in Iowa. Hillary Clinton had been leading in the early polls, but her numbers have been steadily dropping when she is suddenly – shockingly – bested by a young, almost unknown senator from Illinois.
Barack Obama announced to his supporters that evening, “…at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do.”
Fast forward now to 2016, and Obama’s words sound eerily akin to what 2016 challenger Senator Bernie Sanders is claiming. For the Clinton camp, the parallels must be deeply disconcerting.
So at last night’s Democratic debate, it was no surprise to see Secretary Clinton attack more than she has in previous debates. And though she probably scored some points in highlighting Sanders’ various flippity-flops on gun control, viewers seem to think Sanders won.
That’s probably neither here nor there (though this writer feels third candidate Martin O’Malley is consistently underestimated. We’ll see come vote time if he’s more than an asterisk). Marco Rubio has consistently been hailed as the “winner” of Republican debates, and he remains stuck in third place.
What stood out to me is a statistic that came from a question, namely that Sanders is currently outpolling Clinton, two-to-one, amongst Millennials.
For Clinton, this has to be a top concern. Why?
Part of Obama’s election victories came from his great popularity amongst young adults. Sure, younger voters tend to generally lean Democratic. But they are notorious for being unreliable. If this surprises you, go spend an afternoon on a college campus or an evening on the town. Or just watch Aziz Ansari’s excellent Master of None, wherein one character explains to his father the vital importance of getting to the movie theater in time to see previews.
Millennials – like most previous generations of young people – are not famous for their seriousness. Political devotion and dependability are not key traits.
But in 2008, droves of them showed up to vote for the first African-American President.
And Clinton will need them to come out and vote for her, if she plans on moving back to 1600 Pennsylvania.
So the short answer is yes, Clinton has a problem with Millennials.
The bigger question is why? If Millennial voters were so excited at the prospect of an African-American leader, why aren’t they as pumped to see the first female POTUS?
Brainstorm opportunity:
1. Young people have grown up in a world where gender equality is more or less the norm. So the “BIG DEAL” aspect of a woman president more or less escapes them.
2. Too many of them remember the shenanigans (or worse) of former POTUS and Hillary Husband, Bill Clinton, and are simply not that into her wifely devotion to a man of questionable character.
3. Bernie Sanders talks – aloud and loud – about political ideologies not oft seen on American debate stages, but very oft seen in college poli-sci classes and after hours student pub chats about all that is wrong with ‘Merica. It’s the Left’s equivalent of Ron Paul: old white guy with professorial ideas about all the ways everyone who came before has got the system all wrong.
4. Clinton’s ties to big business and her recent email scandal are really that damaging to her believability.
There are no doubt many more possibilities. But the truth is, if Clinton is serious about winning, she will need a way to address and rebuff all four of these – at least.
I’m a little surprised we didn’t see any defenses at all last night.
